Nikki Haley will unveil her 2024 presidential campaign at home in South Carolina on Wednesday, but it’s former President Donald Trump that Palmetto State Republicans want as their nominee.
According to a new primary voter survey shared with Secrets just hours before Haley hits the stage in Charleston, Trump leads the state’s favorite daughter 35%-16%. Expected challenger Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is second with 22%.
Pollster Rick Shaftan said that Haley has “severe” problems as she enters the race a year before the state hosts its primary.
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He said, “70 percent of South Carolina Republicans do not mention Haley as a first, second, or third place choice despite her 100% name ID.”
The new poll of 300 repeat Republican primary voters said that while Haley is well liked, many do not know much about her or her message, and that may be a problem when placed beside well-known disrupters Trump and DeSantis.
“South Carolina voters like Haley personally, but other than giving her credit for a good economy and hurricane/flood relief, there’s little people can identify as actual accomplishments as (former) governor. The shallow perception illustrates why Haley is losing her home state to an outsider governor and a former president she once served,” Shaftan’s analysis noted.
In it, he asked voters to express what they liked and disliked most about the candidates. For Haley, the likes included “good job 26%, for the people 7%, honest 6%,” according to the analysis. The negatives included “inexperienced/not ready 14%, weak 12%, quits projects 10% ... stabbed Trump in the back 6%.”
Haley has had an interesting relationship with Trump. She had his strong support when she was the ambassador to the United Nations. But she decried his election questioning after the Jan. 6 riot. She has also endorsed his 2024 election attempt and said, "I would not run if President Trump ran.”
The survey also tested some other candidates, notably former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC). Neither did well. Scott, said to be mulling a bid, received 1.6% of the GOP primary vote and Pence 1.5%.
While national polls have shown a horse race between DeSantis and Trump, state polls have shown a stronger DeSantis movement. Shaftan’s South Carolina poll, while putting DeSantis second, indicated that he continues to win new support.
But, he added, moving past Trump in a two- or three-way race will be hard, even if Haley eventually bows out.
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“While DeSantis has the highest favorables of anyone tested, he has not closed the sale with many of his own supporters. In fact, DeSantis favorables back Trump 32-31 with 15 for Haley,” said the pollster.
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The survey also revealed problems for Trump. Primary voters, for example, are over with his “mouth” and nasty comments but were pleased with his accomplishments as president.
Many voters who like Trump also like DeSantis, and Shaftan said Trump’s attacks on the governor, calling him “Meatball Ron,” for example, could come back to haunt him.
“This illustrates exactly why Trump’s attacks on DeSantis will eventually backfire. DeSantis has a 63-3 favorable rating with Trump voters, and the more Trump attacks DeSantis, the more it will blow back at Trump and drive his negatives,” read the analysis.
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